I must say one thing before starting this article. I have been waiting for more than three months to write something about the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) led assault on Libya to allegedly “free its people” from the tyranny of Muammar Gadaffi and his minions.
The reason I did not write anything on the topic till now is due to hope. Yes, hope. Hope that NATO would route the already teetering country led by Gadaffi in a matter of weeks. This hope stemmed from my now apparent overconfidence in the military strength of NATO. I was initially jubilant after the passing of Resolution 1973 of the United Nations which authorized military use (although it did not use the word regime change in any way) to liberate the Libyan people from oppression by an autocratic tyrant. The resolution passed after a lot of drama with the usual suspects, China and Russia (and some unusual ones like South Africa, Brazil, India and even Germany!) abstaining to vote on the resolution, signifying implicit opposition to such an operation.
Yet, I hoped the principles of Western idealism and belief in universal freedom and human rights was going to be upheld in a matter of weeks as NATO (primarily led by the UK and a resurgent and aggressive France) would send Gadaffi and his fellows packing into the sunset. My hopes were boosted with another unprecedented event when the Arab League decided to support NATO in Operation Odyssey Dawn with countries like Qatar and the UAE even promising logistical and military assistance. The UAE even promised air strikes in addition to aerial recon. Encouraging news indeed.
But where are we now. The initial objective of creating a No Fly Zone which basically meant the destruction of major Libyan air strike capabilities and the destruction of anti-aircraft capabilities has turned out to be a resounding success. But there has been little progress afterwards. Dare I say, there has been some regress! NATO has lost some credibility due to a surge in civilian casualties in the last month. There are no signs of clear progress. Gadaffi is still holding his ground in the West with the capital Tripoli and the oil town of Misrata still under his control. The rebels, after their initial advances have been pushed back as Gadaffi’s men still have superior firepower, especially the heavy weapons which the rebels can’t match.
NATO is reluctant to provide them with equalizers fearing a future “destabilization” of the region and the thought of even sending in ground troops is a taboo like none other, especially in the UK who still maintains a strong contingent in Afghanistan (they pulled out of Iraq some time ago). The British public support for the Afghan war is already waning and the ruling Tory led government knows that sending in ground troops would be political suicide. The French are even more against sending in ground troops. The presidential elections are coming up next year and the already politically cornered Mr. Sarkozy would think twice before taking up any such operation in a dangerous foreign theatre. America, NATO’s biggest sponsor and fan wants to stay as far away from the war as possible. A wise decision Mr. Obama.
There have been constant rumours since the last few months on multiple occasions which speculate on the “imminent departure” of Mr. Gadaffi and his near agreement on getting a “political solution” to the crisis. But they have been just that – rumours.
So where does that leave the war? In a stalemate? I think so.
The West needs to weigh in its options very carefully right now. After the “jasmine” revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain and the “mini jasmines” in places like Jordan, Oman and Morocco it is imperative that the West stop this contagion from spreading further into sub-Saharan Africa which houses some of the most brutal dictators and repressed populations, who if inspired by these events in their neighbourhood could start a more bloody variety of “African Jasmines”. The recent separation of South Sudan from the North could inspire others in the region to follow the Sudanese example. Given that Africa is one of the biggest and most important suppliers of mineral wealth (including oil) and the most rapidly developing market for exports from all over the world, any destabilization of the continent (or even a reasonably sized chunk of it) could lead to significant global implications, the primary of which could be a rise in global commodity prices and inflation. A not so pretty picture emerges.
Therefore, it is of paramount importance that the NATO led operation make a stand on this decision for a change (unanimous decisions in Brussels are increasingly rare) and put an end to this to war and get on with the much difficult to task of rebuilding Libya.
One ponders whether if the West would succeed in getting rid of Gadaffi and successfully rebuilding Libya with a functioning democratic government, it would inspire the other repressed people of Africa to revolt against their leaders in hope of a better future. Will they expect similar help from NATO and the West? A question only time will answer. And perhaps oil too!
Mitul Choksi
July 10, 2011
Ahmedabad, Republic of India
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