Elections 2009

While I know that you must be letting off a deep sigh with the title of this topic thinking "Haven't I read or heard about this topic since this morning at least half a dozen times?", I would still like to put down my opinion and two cents (I mean paise) for what I think would most likely be the outcome of the 2009 Indian General Elections.

While most of us who haven't been living under a rock for the last 5 years know that this was shaping up to be one of the most complicated elections in world history. Dozens of parties, hundreds of politicians, crores of people and limitless confusion in the minds of voters all make a recipe for a coalition hotch-potch that might not be too tasty for the masses, especially in this kind of a tough economic atmosphere that has engulfed us courtesy of some speculating primarily western bankers.

Although this election is one which is a real tough one to predict the outcome of, it is safe to say that the following things are almost guaranteed.

1. There will be a coaltion government (obviously!) as no single party can even come close to expecting something like a singular majority.

2. The coaltion partners of whatever government that takes power at the centre will play an extremely crucial role in maintaining a stable and sane government. (did I use the word sane and coaltion partners in the same line? So stupid of me!)

3. If any of the national parties (read: Congress or the BJP) are part of the government then they will almost be held hostage by their allies, similarly as was the case in the Congress-Left coalition that took power in 2004.

Now lets get to the topic of individual party performance.

First, the ruling Congress. The Congress has no doubt put on a good show in the last 5 years with good governance and performed rather very well in its first major coaltion government. It has eluded all the doubts of naysayers who said that the Congress would not be able to let go of its bullying as in the socialist days of India. Congress has put on a good show in terms of the economy with an average rate of 9% GDP growth in the first 4 years of its rule. Even in the economic downturn of late 2008-09 it is predicting a 6% GDP growth rate in 2009 which though 2/3rd of what it accomplished in the first 4 years is no mean feat considering the current economic downturn and is very good performance in comparison to other developing countries like Russia and China.

Still, the Congress may have problems in obtaining the vote of right-wing minded Hindus who still feel that Congress is a Muslim appeasing party. The delay in hanging of the 2001 parliament attack convicted felon Afzal Guru since the last many years and the failure of the Congress government in protecting citizens in various states from Islamic terrorists and the Mumbai Massacre of November 2008 can severely dent the number of votes it obtains. I predict somewhere between 130 and 155 seats for the Congress.

The other big fish - the BJP looks to be in even murkier waters than its main national opponent, the Congress. Fresh on losses of Rajasthan (after the Gujjar fiasco of the government) and Delhi (strong showing of the work done by the Sheila Dikshit government) have loosened the BJP somewhat. Although to be fair, the BJP swept the legislative assemblies in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. The hold of the BJP in Karnataka is quite powerful and its iron grip on Gujarat makes one feel that BJP will sweep Gujarat in the general elections.

But BJP has a fair share of its problems too. Prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani is seen by many on the centre-left (Congress leaning) and left leaning (socialist and communist leaning) as a hardline Hindu leader who will always marginalize the minorities (read Muslims and Christians) at any cost. His perceived image in connection with the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition and the ensuing Ram Mandir saga does not help his image in the aforementioned circles. Another problem that the BJP needs to be wary of is the confusion in voters regarding the succession of L.K. Advani once he decides to pass the baton. Many people project Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to succeed him but there are many other senior leaders to block his path at the helm of the party like Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley.

Another major problem that may haunt the BJP is its perceived extremely right-wing school of thought in the secular (I should say pseudo-secular) media. Finally, BJP's poll campaign was (at least in my view) poorly designed as there was hardly any focus on the economy, very less advertising (when compared to the Congress) and verbal mud-slinging with the Gandhi family of the Congress. I see the BJP with around 100-110 seats this time round.

As for the other major regional parties somehow I feel the Left parties will suffer a major blow in West Bengal. The Left sufferred a big loss of reputation with the entire fiasco of the Tata Motors project in Singur. And its no big secret that their work in West Bengal is horrible to say the least as despite all the natural and human wealth that one can imagine of, West Bengal remains in a horrible state when compared even to states like Orissa.

The AIADMK will get a good result in Tamil Nadu as the ruling DMK government looks weak and has suffered loss of popular support with the comments of the state's CM on Lord Ram. Although the DMK may get a last minute surge of votes after the end of hostilities in Sri Lanka. Pretty much even in Tamil Nadu. The other parties will be limited to a minor fringe.

The other big thing to look out for would be Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Although she swept the assembly polls last year in UP (the king maker state) and the odds favour her its very difficult to predict UP. Mayawati's rival, the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav has also been working round the clock to entice voters. The BJP holds a small fraction in UP whereas the Congress will most likely fall after the Muslim vote but be limited to a fringe nonetheless in the state just like in the assembly polls.

To sum it all up, the election looks pretty tough to call but I reckon that the Congress will somehow manage to come at the centre. Although in what type of arrangement and power sharing deal will they come at the centre cannot be imagined by me at this time. Perhaps they may tie-up with the Left once again or Mayawati. As is the case in Indian politics right from the pre-partition days.

GOD KNOWS what will happen!

Mitul Choksi
27th April 2009
11:53 PM Indian Standard Time