Before I get on with this blog post, let me be very clear and transparent here by stating that I am a staunch supporter of Mr. Narendra Modi. However, this blog post is not about telling skeptics “I told you so” but to ponder on some practical considerations that will play a role in charting Mr. Modi’s future course.
It wasn’t a surprise even to the most vehement opponents of Mr. Modi (notably Tehelka and The Times of India) that he would come back to occupy the post of Chief Minister for the third consecutive time in Gandhinagar. His win was a foregone conclusion that was accepted by all.
Therefore, in absence of the question of whether the Bharatiya Janta Party would win, the pundits had to pick up on another question. That question being how many seats would the BJP garner in Gujarat. Some speculated whether there would be a prerequisite in terms of number of seats which would absolutely be required for him to be immediately catapulted to the centre in a “national role” for the BJP. This question was simply, in my opinion a rather desperate attempt by especially, the electronic media to fill the airwaves with some topic of discussion in view of the fact that they had no room to discuss and speculate as to who the winning party was going to be.
The fact known by most Gujaratis (irrespective of who they vote for) is that Mr. Modi does indeed harbour ambitions for a national role in politics with his eyes set straight on the “throne” of becoming - the Prime Minister. It is believed that it is only a matter of time when he actually “spills the beans” and makes an explicit announcement for his move towards his prime ministerial ambitions.
Assuming that “belief” to be correct let me now start pondering on some issues that are likely to crop up in Mr. Modi’s path to national leadership. While I would love to see him sitting in the PMO, there are some pretty tricky hurdles for Mr. Modi to leap over before he even becomes the official and declared face of BJP’s 2014 candidate for Prime Minister.
Firstly, Mr. Modi would need to manage and consolidate his position as a prime ministerial candidate within the ranks of the BJP itself. It is widely believed that there is internal opposition to Mr. Modi’s proposed candidature coming from various regional BJP leaderships. Contrary to popular belief, the BJP ruled governments in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh are doing reasonably well under their local leaderships. It would not be illogical to assume that these arms of the party would like to project someone from within their own ranks for a national role. Admittedly, the chances of that happening are quite low. However, with regional elections coming up in states like Rajasthan and Delhi in 2013 where BJP is the primary opposition to the ruling Congress, the chances of a local leader from these states coming up with national aspirations cannot be ruled out in case of a BJP victory. There is also the big question of whether Mr. Modi would make it past the current top leadership of the BJP for the top spot. Senior leaders like Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Ravi Shankar Prasad and the like have been waiting in opposition since 2004 when the BJP lost the general elections to the Congress led UPA, to get a shot at the top spots. Would Mr. Modi make it past these top barons? Only time would tell.
Secondly, if Mr. Modi does make it past these hurdles and gets consensus for the prime minister’s job, there would arise the question of his “acceptability” as a PM candidate amongst the BJP’s NDA allies. The NDA kitty consists of other regional parties who are sensitive to their own constituencies to Mr. Modi’s appeal, especially to Muslims. When it comes to Muslims, Mr. Modi is probably the most divisive figure in this country. Whether that image is deserved or not is a completely different story but it is a fact that Mr. Modi’s projection as PM would probably drain several Muslim votes from these allied parties as well as from the BJP itself who would otherwise have voted for them. That is primarily the reason Mr. Modi would be a tough pill to swallow for the allies of the NDA as a PM candidate. Nitish Kumar of Bihar has already made it clear that he wants NDA to promote a “secular” person as PM candidate, clearly a dig at Modi who is perceived by most (I think wrongly) as not secular. Although Mr. Kumar’s government in Bihar would not be possible without BJP support, it is interesting to note that an NDA government at the center without the Mr. Kumar’s JD(U) would be short lived at best.
Thirdly, in event of Mr. Modi becoming the prime ministerial candidate for the NDA after surpassing the aforementioned odds, it would be interesting to see how the average Indian voter responds to Mr. Modi’s appeal as a possible PM. It is well documented that a significant of young voters (ages early 20s to mid 30s) and first time young voters (below 20) are positively responsive to Mr. Modi’s appeal as possible future PM. In recent polls and surveys done by mostly pro-Congress publications and channels like India Today and Headline Today, it was shown that Mr. Modi’s image as PM resonates among a large number of India’s young population which incidentally makes up a significantly high number of the voter base come 2014. However, his appeal amongst minorities, especially Muslims remains lackluster at best. The Muslim voter could well prove to be the “swing voter” come 2014 in case “Hindu India” strongly backs the NDA.
Fourth and most important (though rarely thought of) is the point of what would be the fate of a central government under Narendra Modi as prime minister. Even if he manages to get the top job, would the BJP have the numbers to sustain a coalition that can complete a full term. Given the current political climate in the country, it is easy to figure out that Indian politics will become more and more concentrated in the states rather than the centre which will devolve into a “quasi-federal” and “semi-weak” centre. Mr. Modi runs things efficiently in Gujarat because he has a 2/3rd majority in the state assembly and can do what he very well pleases to. That would definitely not be the case in the centre even if the BJP manages to get a landslide in 2014. Dependence on smaller allies would compel the BJP to be more receptive of them and heed their demands. It would not be an as efficient show as in today’s Gujarat. It would also be a bit out of character for Mr. Modi who is used to doing things single handedly and rather swiftly.
These are in my views some practical considerations that would need to be made by the BJP and Narendra Modi before the 2014 elections. Their collective aim should not be to just get to power, but to retain it for a full term. Can it be done? I have my fingers crossed!
Mitul Choksi
Ahmedabad, India
December 21, 2012
