As most of us have been experiencing for the last couple of decades storage media is getting cheaper and cheaper as the days go on and the capacity of the storage media too has been
increasing at a rapid pace and by exponential factors.
Many of you reading this blog would remember (with frustration, jest and wonder) the good old floppy disks of the 90s. Many of us (especially in developing countries) still use the CD on a
large scale even though it is now almost a dinosaur in the developed markets of the west and Japan. Then came the DVD with its almost 5-10 times leap in storage capacity. And now, the new kid on the block seems to be Blu-Ray, a format that won the bitter format war against the HD-DVD. Blu-Ray boasts of a 5-10 times rise in storage capacity against the DVD thus boasting a 25 GB capacity on a single layer disc and a whooping 50 GB on a dual layer disc. By any standards, that seems impressive. And now even before the Blu-Ray becomes mainstream in any major market (it does have a small share in western markets where DVDs still continue to reign supreme) many people have even started to think “What next?” 100 GB? 200 GB?
The answer in my opinion to the “What next?” question is a little different. But first, lets make one thing very clear. What are CDs, DVDs, Blu-Rays (and even HD-DVDs for that matter)? They are in essence a content delivery mechanism. The content in this case largely being data with large sizes like movies and other multimedia content.
This large sized content was shipped in such optical discs for the last decade and a half for a three primary reasons.
1) These optical media allowed data/content with large sizes to fit on relatively small form factors (the discs) and be transported easily without many chances of damage.
2) The data/content was so large that it could not be transported over the then existing network infrastructure in reasonable time frames and without incurring large costs in terms of
time, money and productivity.
3) The existence of large, cohesive and powerful networking tools as well as highly evolved cloud services was not ubiquitous.
We can all agree today that points 2 and 3 are almost irrelevant for the most of us (even in relatively bandwidth poor countries like India). Today, data with large sizes can be downloaded
in a matter of hours. As most of you might know, the time required to download a 700 MB file (the size of a CD) takes less than 4 hours on a 512 kbps connection. This is a far cry from the
days of dial-up (the time when the CD was popular) when downloading a 700 MB file was only something you could dream about.
The relevance of point 3 has almost also vanished completely due to the prevalance and large scale popularity of cloud services like YouTube, Hulu and NetFlix which provide you with the
ability of streaming content directly from the Internet instead of actually purchasing hard media containing the actual content.
It is obvious that the content is more important than the medium through which the content is deliverd. And as the optical media whatever it may be DVD or Blu-Ray, is facing stiff competition as the entire model of content storage and delivery change. From the days when a burning an optical disc and distributing it stores from where they are sold to consumers was
popular we are now seeing a paradigm shift in content storage and delivery where content is stored in the cloud on some remote server (ala YouTube and Hulu) and then are streamed directly to the consumer on his computer using a high speed broadband connection.
As the Internet Service Providers keep upgrading their backbones and provide connections to businesses and consumers with higher and higher bandwidths the importance of optical media will keep on diminishing.
The prediction of most analysts and computer industry veterans that sooner rather than later our TVs will be connected to the cloud in one way or the other could be a death knell for the
optical media industry. We are seeing examples of this starting to happen. Apple recently announced that its Apple TV (which is basically a DVR) will not only allow streaming of content
from your PC’s iTunes library but also enable you to stream content from YouTube directly on to your TV screen.
This does not look good for the optical media industry in general. According to a Harris Interactive Poll found that 93 percent of those surveyed have no interest in purchasing a Blu-Ray
DVD player, despite HDTV ownership rising to 47 percent, up from 35 percent a year ago. The only way most of us will even own a Blu-Ray player will be if we buy a new PC or laptop with the Blu-Ray player included or if we buy some console like the PlayStation 3.
And even then whether the sales of Blu-Ray discs will pick up radically as they did in the cases of the transition from the CD to the DVD is a big question due to the rising competition of
HD cable and cloud services.
What will happen? Lets wait and watch...
Mitul Choksi
23rd June 2009 00:02 AM Indian Standard Time
20 June 2009
Can Oil prices in India be deregulated
The prices of petrol (aka gasoline) and diesel have almost always been a pain for the Indian consumer as well as the Indian politician. For consumers rising oil prices represent an obvious dent in the pocket and for the politician it can mean either winning or losing popularity amongst the masses.
But besides these two groups of people there is another sufferer. Oil marketing companies like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) are the biggest losers in terms of money when it comes to oil prices. Oil prices in India are fixed by the Central Government and on many occassions these OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) are forced to sell petrol and diesel way below their cost price.
This results in them bleeding profusely in financial terms as they incur losses of tens of crores (1 crore = 10 million) of rupess everyday. This is ultimately a loss that has to be borne by the exchequer.
The obvious solution to this problem would be to deregulate oil prices and thus link the prices of petrol, diesel and other ancillary petroleum products to the price of crude oil in the international market. But this again would be a major problem for consumers and politicians. If international prices become too high and are thus reflected in the prices of petrol and diesel the consumer would have to pay very large amounts for obtaining fuel. Higher prices of petrol and diesel would also be a hindrance to industrial development which is already slowing down due to the international financial crisis. Higher oil prices would also get politcians into trouble as they would become very unpopular among the consumers as well as industry.
A middle path to this problem which would be fair to consumers, industry, politicians and OMCs would be to partially deregulate the oil prices up till a certain limit. For example, the OMCs should be given to fix the prices of petrol and diesel (which would give them an opportunity to make some profits for a change) up until the price of crude oil reaches somewhere in the range of $80-$85. If the prices of crude go above say $85 then the government should kick in and put a cap on the prices of petrol and diesel and thus give the consumer and industry some relief from very high prices.
Besides this model of de-regulation the OMCs should also be allowed to be exempted from paying of duties like excise and octroi when international crude prices cross a certain threshold. This would help bring their costs down and thus minimize their losses.
Other related measures to aid OMCs should be to allow petrol pumps to charge some sort of extra service tax or surcharge for expensive luxury cars.
The measure discussed above do sound far fetched in some cases but are very necessary to implement in the near future as the government does not have money to throw around to help the OMCs. The fiscal deficit has risen to a high of more than 5.5% of GDP (thanks to the two fiscal stimulus packages). The real deficit hovers at around more than 7% which is extremely unhealthy.
It has been reported that the petroleum ministry is working on restructuring the current methods of fixing oil prices.
The only thing to do un till then is to wait and watch
Mitul Choksi
20 June 2009
8:36 AM Indian Standard Time
But besides these two groups of people there is another sufferer. Oil marketing companies like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) are the biggest losers in terms of money when it comes to oil prices. Oil prices in India are fixed by the Central Government and on many occassions these OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) are forced to sell petrol and diesel way below their cost price.
This results in them bleeding profusely in financial terms as they incur losses of tens of crores (1 crore = 10 million) of rupess everyday. This is ultimately a loss that has to be borne by the exchequer.
The obvious solution to this problem would be to deregulate oil prices and thus link the prices of petrol, diesel and other ancillary petroleum products to the price of crude oil in the international market. But this again would be a major problem for consumers and politicians. If international prices become too high and are thus reflected in the prices of petrol and diesel the consumer would have to pay very large amounts for obtaining fuel. Higher prices of petrol and diesel would also be a hindrance to industrial development which is already slowing down due to the international financial crisis. Higher oil prices would also get politcians into trouble as they would become very unpopular among the consumers as well as industry.
A middle path to this problem which would be fair to consumers, industry, politicians and OMCs would be to partially deregulate the oil prices up till a certain limit. For example, the OMCs should be given to fix the prices of petrol and diesel (which would give them an opportunity to make some profits for a change) up until the price of crude oil reaches somewhere in the range of $80-$85. If the prices of crude go above say $85 then the government should kick in and put a cap on the prices of petrol and diesel and thus give the consumer and industry some relief from very high prices.
Besides this model of de-regulation the OMCs should also be allowed to be exempted from paying of duties like excise and octroi when international crude prices cross a certain threshold. This would help bring their costs down and thus minimize their losses.
Other related measures to aid OMCs should be to allow petrol pumps to charge some sort of extra service tax or surcharge for expensive luxury cars.
The measure discussed above do sound far fetched in some cases but are very necessary to implement in the near future as the government does not have money to throw around to help the OMCs. The fiscal deficit has risen to a high of more than 5.5% of GDP (thanks to the two fiscal stimulus packages). The real deficit hovers at around more than 7% which is extremely unhealthy.
It has been reported that the petroleum ministry is working on restructuring the current methods of fixing oil prices.
The only thing to do un till then is to wait and watch
Mitul Choksi
20 June 2009
8:36 AM Indian Standard Time
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